On the record
278 appearances by this year's voting members since January 2025, and 72 by the other participants below them: speeches, testimony, press conferences and written statements. Each entry links to the full text where one was published, and every passage is quoted verbatim.
| Speaker | Role | Appearances | Quoted | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle W. Bowman | 2026 voter | 47 | 35 | October 14, 2026 |
| Michael S. Barr | 2026 voter | 36 | 26 | September 29, 2026 |
| Christopher J. Waller | 2026 voter | 34 | 31 | October 8, 2026 |
| John C. Williams | 2026 voter | 28 | 28 | September 29, 2026 |
| Jerome H. Powell | 2026 voter | 27 | 24 | May 31, 2026 |
| Lorie K. Logan | 2026 voter | 24 | 21 | October 2, 2026 |
| Lisa D. Cook | 2026 voter | 21 | 19 | September 30, 2026 |
| Philip N. Jefferson | 2026 voter | 21 | 21 | October 1, 2026 |
| Beth M. Hammack | 2026 voter | 16 | 16 | October 12, 2026 |
| Neel Kashkari | 2026 voter | 14 | 4 | September 30, 2026 |
| Anna Paulson | 2026 voter | 7 | 7 | September 17, 2026 |
| Kevin Warsh | 2026 voter | 6 | 6 | October 28, 2026 |
| Austan D. Goolsbee | Non-voter | 34 | 7 | September 30, 2026 |
| Susan M. Collins | Non-voter | 17 | 17 | October 13, 2026 |
| Mary C. Daly | Non-voter | 9 | 7 | April 8, 2026 |
| Thomas I. Barkin | Non-voter | 9 | 9 | September 22, 2026 |
October 28, 2026 Press conferenceHawkish
Kevin Warsh. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
The Committee believes that the accumulation of more information will help it determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.
October 14, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Bangkok Economic Festival, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, Bangkok, Thailand.
The review notes that supervisory attention at SVB often centered on process, procedure, governance, and controls rather than on mitigating the underlying interest rate and liquidity exposures. SVB had 54 matters requiring attention or immediate attention between 2019 and the time of its failure, yet none of those supervisory findings required the bank to address its core financial risks.
October 12, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Beth M. Hammack. 68th National Association of Business Economics annual meeting.
Based on current conditions, forecasts, and risks to the inflation side of our mandate, I believe a restrictive policy stance will be needed for us to reach our destination in a timely fashion.
October 8, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Christopher J. Waller. Istanbul Economic Forum, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Istanbul, Türkiye.
But I am concerned that the recent acceleration in inflation—after what soon will be five and a half years of it above the FOMC's target—will lead consumers, investors, and price-setting businesses to revise up their expectations for future inflation.
October 6, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. 2026 Community Banking Research Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve System, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, St. Louis, Missouri.
Later this year, the Board will consider updates to fixed-dollar asset thresholds in the Board's regulations to account for inflation and economic growth. The proposal will increase static thresholds, with a mechanism to update them every five years.
October 2, 2026 Speech
At Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, I share Dallas Fed research with other FOMC participants as we determine the path of monetary policy. Sharing this work brings regional context and specialized expertise to the national discussion, better informing the decision-making that occurs at each monetary policy meeting.
October 1, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Philip N. Jefferson. Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia.
However, if the AI buildout supports even stronger economic growth than in my baseline forecast, the unemployment rate may fall further, resulting in tighter labor market conditions.
October 1, 2026 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At "Navigating Trust, AI and Storytelling in a World of Data," FRED Con 2026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.
For example, when researching data related to monetary policy or banking, we hope to link to relevant historical documents in the FRASER (Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research) library of Federal Reserve material.
October 1, 2026 SpeechHawkish
In my view, the FOMC should set interest rates so we are on track to achieve both of our dual mandate goals, not just one.
October 1, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Atlantic Council 2026 CEO & Senior Management Summit, Washington, D.C..
It is central to the transmission of monetary policy, the funding of the federal government, and the stability of the broader financial system. Because large banks play such a critical role in this market, bank regulations—particularly capital requirements—can significantly impact how well it functions.
September 30, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Lisa D. Cook. 2026 Investing in Rural America Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Asheville, North Carolina.
As you know, I voted along with the rest of the FOMC to raise rates 25 basis points at the recent September meeting. I am committed to returning inflation to our objective while preserving the strength in the labor market.
September 30, 2026 Speech
No published text.
September 29, 2026 SpeechHawkish
If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. But that is just my forecast, and time—and the totality of the data—will tell.
September 29, 2026 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At Sibos 2026, Miami, Florida.
September 29, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Community Bank Cyber Workshop, Denver, Colorado (via pre-recorded video).
September 29, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Michael S. Barr. Detroit Economic Club, Detroit, Michigan.
Significant monetary policy tightening by the FOMC, along with an easing of supply constraints, helped lower inflation, and by early 2025 it was running close to our objective. Tariff increases in April of that year pushed up goods prices, but at the time it was reasonable to forecast that tariffs would be a one-time increase in prices.
September 28, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Lisa D. Cook. Oakland Tech Week Opening Keynote, cohosted by the Kapor Center, Oakland, California.
As you know, I voted along with the rest of the FOMC to raise rates 25 basis points at the recent September meeting.
September 23, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Michael S. Barr. At "Housing Affordability 2026: A Community Development Summit," hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.
The FOMC took important action to that end last week by increasing the policy rate, which I supported. In my view, given changes to the economy, we were out of position, and we made an adjustment in the right direction.
September 22, 2026 Speech
Given our responsibility here at the New York Fed to implement monetary policy on behalf of the FOMC, I will focus my remaining remarks on how innovations in market structure have impacted—and will continue to impact—monetary policy implementation.
September 22, 2026 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, New York.
The discount window also helps respond to sudden tightening in money markets, supporting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy implementation and complementing the standing repo operations in relieving funding market pressures. When pressures emerge in money markets, banks can turn to the discount window rather than borrowing at rates above the Federal Reserve's target range.
September 18, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Luncheon of the Lord Mayor City of London at Mansion House, London, United Kingdom.
In my view, the early identification of that firm's vulnerability to interest rate risk and concentration of uninsured deposits would have made it nearly impossible to defer prompt and decisive action to require the firm to reduce its vulnerabilities. Combined with other supervisory evidence, it would have prompted earlier action.
September 18, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Luncheon of the Lord Mayor City of London at Mansion House, London, United Kingdom.
Third , despite what it knew or should have known, supervisory staff did not take prompt and decisive action to encourage or require SVB to reduce its interest rate risk or concentration of vulnerabilities.
September 17, 2026 SpeechHawkish
This recalibration brings policy closer to what I believe is needed to return inflation to 2 percent at a pace that appropriately balances inflation risks with risks to the labor market. Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted.
September 16, 2026 Press conferenceHawkish
Kevin Warsh. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
September 3, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Christopher J. Waller. At Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview, Washington, D.C..
But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike. I judge that policy is currently only slightly restricting aggregate demand, and it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy.
September 1, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Michael S. Barr. Second-Chance Lending Forum, Developing Evidence-Based Policy on Creditworthiness and Criminal History, Washington, D.C..
However, if inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates.
August 28, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Kevin Warsh. At "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
It's not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy. We should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems.
August 5, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Lisa D. Cook. 2026 Economic Luncheon of the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, Anchorage, Alaska.
As I have described, inflation is too high, and I consider the risks to the inflation side of the dual mandate higher than the risks to the employment side at this point. As such, I am prepared to act by raising rates, if necessary.
July 31, 2026 StatementHawkish
I dissented against the FOMC's policy action this week because I preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point.
July 31, 2026 StatementHawkish
Given the stability of the labor market, with the unemployment rate near my estimate of maximum employment, I view high inflation as the more pressing problem. A higher federal funds rate would help restrain economic activity and reduce inflationary pressures.
July 29, 2026 Press conferenceHawkish
Kevin Warsh. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
If, as the Fed has long held, interest rate policy should be its primary monetary policy instrument, how much accommodation are we getting from the balance sheet? In all of this, our work is advancing at the Fed.
July 16, 2026 SpeechHawkish
So, I currently believe modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks for the FOMC's maximum employment and price stability goals. Of course, the economy is dynamic, and more data arrive nearly every day.
July 16, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Philip N. Jefferson. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
That said, in a scenario where actual inflation does not start to cool down soon, I believe that it could be appropriate to reconsider our current policy stance to ensure we fulfill our commitment to deliver price stability. Fortunately, our current policy stance leaves us well positioned to respond to economic developments based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
July 15, 2026 Speech
In assessing the future path of monetary policy, my views, as always, will be based on the evolution of the totality of the data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks to the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals.
July 15, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Lisa D. Cook. At The Exchequer Club of Washington D.C., Washington, D.C..
Monetary Policy Considerations Turning to monetary policy, I voted with the rest of the FOMC last month to keep rates steady. I supported this stance, because the two main factors that have pushed up inflation over the past year—tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East—should, in theory, result in only short-lived increases in inflation.
July 14, 2026 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At "Next-Gen Financial Inclusion," the third annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board.
AI, like past major technological advances, will shape the labor market and the broader economy in myriad ways. It is unclear whether AI will reduce or increase income and wealth inequality, but society can begin making choices now that can affect that outcome.
July 14, 2026 TestimonyHawkish
Kevin Warsh. Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives.
In submitting the Board's Monetary Policy Report , I think of a long line of central bank chiefs who came before Congress in keeping with the Federal Reserve Act. I think also of earlier efforts, going back to the time of the Framers, to create a central bank that would endure and serve the nation's founding principles.
July 14, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. At "Next-Gen Financial Inclusion," the third annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video).
July 13, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Christopher J. Waller. New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York.
Because core inflation is a good guide to future inflation, I am concerned that, if this upward trend continues, it will be hard to push inflation back toward the Committee's 2 percent goal with monetary policy at its current setting.
July 13, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. At a Bank Policy Institute London Conference, London, United Kingdom.
Therefore, we are working to address long outdated fixed asset thresholds that ignore economic growth and inflation. A bank with $10 billion in assets today is not the same as a bank with $10 billion in assets a decade ago, and banks with unchanged risk profiles face increasing regulatory burden over time, simply due to economic growth and stagnant thresholds.
July 9, 2026 Speech
However, I believe the FOMC could make its open market operations more efficient and effective, and support the strength of U.S. markets more generally, by centrally clearing its operations on a voluntary basis.
July 7, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Financial Stability Board Virtual Outreach Event.
July 6, 2026 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At "Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World," a conference sponsored by the Bank of Italy for the research network initiated by the European System of Central Banks, Rome, Italy.
A case in point is the forward guidance the FOMC adopted in September 2020 when it said that liftoff from the effective lower bound would occur when conditions were consistent with maximum employment and when inflation had risen to 2 percent and was "on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time." In addition, the FOMC's guidance signaled that rate increases were on hold until tapering was well under way.
June 26, 2026 Speech
No published text.
June 24, 2026 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. State of Small Business Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (via pre-recorded video).
Achieving our dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices will create the conditions where small businesses and all Americans can thrive. Due to the prevalence of small businesses in the U.S., policymakers and researchers must have high-quality data about this important part of the economy.
June 22, 2026 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the Dollar, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C..
June 17, 2026 Press conferenceHawkish
Kevin Warsh. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
I'm appointing a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy: First, Fed communications; second, the Fed's balance sheet; third, our use and reliance on existing data sources; fourth, productivity and jobs in an era of transformation; and last, the Fed's inflation frameworks. These subjects are timely, consequential, and, in my view, worthy of a fresh look.
June 6, 2026 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At American University, Washington, D.C..
Unemployment reached 10 percent in the Global Financial Crisis and 8 percent in the early 1990s recession, a period of persistent low growth and high inflation that was partly related to the consequences of the savings and loan crisis.
June 4, 2026 Testimony
Michelle W. Bowman. Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C..
Recent Developments Since I last appeared before the Committee, we have made substantial progress to modernize the regulatory and supervisory framework. Let me highlight a few of these initiatives.
June 3, 2026 SpeechHawkish
I am increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability and appropriately balance both sides of the Fed's dual mandate. However, these decisions call for thorough analysis and debate.
June 2, 2026 SpeechHawkish
So, achieving maximum employment and price stability is often referred to as the FOMC's "dual mandate." Through the 1990s and into the 2000s, the FOMC debated and wrestled with how to square a specific inflation goal with our dual mandate. The resolution was "flexible inflation targeting," an approach that allowed the Committee to pursue both low inflation and maximum employment, without treating one as superior to the other.
June 1, 2026 Speech
May 31, 2026 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. For the 2026 John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award, John F. Kennedy Library Foundation, Boston, Massachusetts.
We use our monetary policy tools to promote maximum employment and stable prices. We regulate and supervise banks.
May 29, 2026 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. Reykjavík Economic Conference 2026, Central Bank of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland.
With economic growth slowing, the unemployment rate continuing to rise, signs of a less dynamic labor market becoming clear, and inflation, excluding tariff effects, descending toward 2 percent, I preferred to begin the process of moving the policy stance from restrictive toward neutral. That action would have begun the process to proactively hedge against the risk of greater and more persistent damage to the labor market and weakening economic activity one meeting earlier.
May 28, 2026 Speech
For example, in the model simulations of the Federal Reserve Board's macro model presented for the FOMC meeting in February 2000, the near-term demand response outweighs the supply response, and real interest rate need to adjust upward more quickly than absent the productivity acceleration, see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, " Monetary Policy Alternatives (Bluebook) ," January 28, 2000.
May 27, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Lisa D. Cook. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Similarly, I expect the labor market will remain stable without having to lower rates.
May 27, 2026 Speech
I believe the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could further promote market resilience and effective monetary policy implementation by centrally clearing our open market operations, even though they are not subject to the mandate. The FOMC should also deepen its strategies and tools for distinguishing support for smooth Treasury market functioning from monetary accommodation.
May 27, 2026 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. 2026 Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Tokyo, Japan.
I am firmly committed to returning inflation to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent target, aligned with our dual-mandate objectives of price stability and maximum employment given to us by Congress. At our last meeting, in late April, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
May 22, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Christopher J. Waller. At The Centre for Central Banking Guest Lecture, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Frankfurt, Germany.
With regard to future rate cuts, I am going to need to see improvement on inflation or a significant deterioration in the labor market before I would consider reducing the policy rate. So, on net, my current policy position is to hold rates steady for the near term.
May 20, 2026 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At EMERGE Financial Health 2026 Scaling Progress, Shaping the Future, Atlanta, Georgia.
A case study released at this conference last year included data indicating that financially healthy customers might cost less to serve: they used customer service centers less frequently and fell delinquent on loans at lower rates. This kind of operational efficiency, combined with increased deposits and usage of other services, suggests that helping customers achieve financial health need not just be good for consumers—it can also be good for the bottom line.
May 14, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 2026 Future of Banking Conference: Powering Progress, Protecting Trust, Kansas City, Missouri (via pre-recorded video).
May 14, 2026 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, New York.
In my judgment, the Treasury should determine the maturity composition of debt held by the public, and in normal times, our balance sheet should mirror the maturity distribution of outstanding issuance to the extent possible, thus having a neutral effect on the composition of securities available to the public over time. We are moving in this direction now.
May 13, 2026 SpeechHawkish
May 10, 2026 Speech
Although the labor market is in balance, many employers are slow to hire. Inflation is still too high.
May 8, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Hoover Institution Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.
Instead of talking about monetary policy, my remarks will focus on this topic.
May 8, 2026 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. Hoover Institution Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.
I believe that these improvements would keep the Fed's commitment to wisely use public resources in serving the American people and thus help support our independence in conducting monetary policy in the public's interest.
May 8, 2026 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Conference on Digital Assets, Dakar, Senegal.
Questions like these ignited my interest in understanding how the economy and monetary policy affect people's lives.
May 7, 2026 SpeechHawkish
May 5, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium, Washington, D.C..
May 4, 2026 Speech
The elevated levels of inflation, mixed signals from the labor market, and heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict present an unusual set of circumstances, but the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals. Accordingly, at its meeting last week, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
May 1, 2026 StatementHawkish
I supported the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to hold the federal funds rate at this week's meeting, but I dissented against the FOMC's action because I did not think it was appropriate to continue to include the following phrase in the policy statement: "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate …"
May 1, 2026 StatementHawkish
I dissented from the post-meeting statement because I did not believe it was appropriate to include an easing bias around the future path for monetary policy. The current FOMC statement references language around "additional adjustments." This forward guidance was put into the statement to signal a pause rather than an end to the easing cycle.
May 1, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Financial Stability Oversight Council Artificial Intelligence Series Roundtable on Cybersecurity and Risk Management, Washington, D.C..
April 29, 2026 Press conferenceHawkish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent. The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty.
April 21, 2026 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C..
Whenever anyone hears the words "Federal Reserve" they immediately think about monetary policy and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) setting the federal funds rate. There is obviously tremendous media attention on those policy decisions, as there should be because they affect U.S. households and businesses and financial markets around the world.
April 17, 2026 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. David Kaserman Memorial Lecture, Department of Economics, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama.
If I face this situation, I'll have to balance the risks to the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate to determine the appropriate path of policy, and that may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market.
April 16, 2026 Speech
In assessing the future path of monetary policy, my views, as always, will be based on the evolution of the totality of the data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks to the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals.
April 14, 2026 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At Strengthening America's Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum, Washington, D.C..
While monetary policy affects the whole country, understanding how those policies transmit through rural labor markets, rural small businesses, and agricultural economies contributes to broad-based, inclusive growth.
April 7, 2026 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. College of Business Administration, University of Detroit Mercy, Detroit, Michigan.
Last month, I supported the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate steady. As you can see in figure 8 , over the past year and a half, the Committee lowered the target range for the policy rate 175 basis points.
April 2, 2026 Speech
I've focused on the details of the Fed's balance sheet, but I'm sure you would also like to hear about the outlook for the economy and the FOMC's policy decisions, and I trust Robert has plenty of questions for me on those topics. Please join me in welcoming Robert to the stage.
March 31, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. At CBA LIVE 26, Consumer Bankers Association, San Diego, California.
According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Small Business Lending Survey, 9 percent of banks, on net, reported tightening credit standards in the third quarter of 2025 on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to small firms. Among banks that reported having tightened standards, 83 percent cited economic uncertainty as a reason for tightening.
March 31, 2026 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At "The GENIUS Act in Practice: Key Questions for Stablecoin Regulation," The Federalist Society, Washington, D.C..
March 30, 2026 Speech
In assessing the future path of monetary policy, my views, as always, will be based on the evolution of the totality of the data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks to the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals.
March 26, 2026 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. At Yale Program on Financial Stability, School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.
Let me take a moment to acknowledge the contributions of the committee's first chair, the late Stanley Fischer. He made seminal contributions to the literature on financial stability, as well as open-economy macroeconomics, and he was a dedicated public servant who took on several roles as a central banker.
March 26, 2026 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. Global Perspectives Speaker Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas, Texas.
Last week, I supported the FOMC's decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate steady. As you can see in Figure 6 , over the past year and a half, the Committee lowered the target range for the policy rate 175 basis points.
March 26, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Michael S. Barr. Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C..
As you know, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met last week and chose to maintain the current setting of monetary policy—a decision I supported. The U.S. economy has thus far remained resilient, despite having experienced a series of shocks over the past year.
March 24, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Michael S. Barr. 2026 National Community Investment Conference, Phoenix, Arizona.
While I am hopeful that inflation will fall as the effects of tariffs on prices wane later this year, I would like to see evidence that goods and services price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labor market conditions remain stable. Moreover, the conflict in the Middle East raises additional risks.
March 21, 2026 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. American Society for Public Administration Annual Conference: Paul A. Volcker Public Integrity Award Ceremony (via pre-recorded video).
In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on May 19, 1982, with unemployment above 9 percent and critics calling for him to change course, Volcker acknowledged the pain of wringing out inflation through high interest rates but held out the prospect of a return to price stability, and with it a much brighter future.
March 18, 2026 Press conferenceHawkish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
This normalization of our policy stance should continue to help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2 percent. But the implications of events in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.
March 12, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Cato Institute Policy Forum: Basel III and Bank Capital Rules, Washington, D.C..
Stress test losses also increase capital requirements, and balance sheet expansion in line with economic growth and inflation has increased G-SIB surcharges. Changes to the G-SIB surcharge based on underlying risk are appropriate but increases driven mainly by real economic growth and inflation do not reflect increases in systemic risk.
March 6, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Under my base case, I think policy should be on hold for quite some time as we see evidence that inflation is coming down and the labor market stabilizes further. But it's easy to envision other scenarios, as well, so I see two-sided risks to rates.
March 6, 2026 Speech
I think there's also this opportunity to think about how we improve monetary policy communications by being systematic about describing which data are important and why. So, I will stop there.
March 3, 2026 SpeechDovish
Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.
March 3, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. At The Roundtable on Liquidity and Lender of Last Resort sponsored by the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, Washington, D.C..
Some see tension between monetary policy implementation tools and regulatory objectives. In my mind, these goals should be compatible if we are modernizing the discount window to serve as an effective liquidity backstop, instead of a theoretical option.
March 3, 2026 Speech
No published text.
February 26, 2026 Testimony
Michelle W. Bowman. Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C..
Asset growth due, in part, to inflation and economic growth over time has resulted in small banks becoming subject to laws and regulations that were intended for much larger banks. I also support improvements to the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering framework that will assist law enforcement while minimizing the unnecessary regulatory burden that disproportionately falls on community banks.
February 24, 2026 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 2026 Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Shaping the Future of Finance and Payments, Boston, Massachusetts (via webcast).
Now most people associate the Federal Reserve with monetary policy—interest rates, inflation, and the decisions that make headlines when Fed officials meet eight times a year. But the bulk of our daily activity is doing operational work such as payments, financial management, human resources, and providing financial services to the U.S.
February 24, 2026 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. At "The Great Realignment: Navigating AI, Demographic, and Geoeconomic Shifts," 42nd Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C..
I briefly discussed how AI could affect the labor market and the neutral rate of interest, but there are many other factors to examine. And it is too early to observe the exact contours of any changes.
February 23, 2026 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. At The Great Realignment: Navigating AI, Demographic and Geoeconomic Change, 42nd Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference, The National Association for Business Economics, Washington, D.C..
If the labor market data for February are consistent with the stronger job creation and low unemployment rate initially reported in January, indicating that downside risks to the labor market have diminished, it may be appropriate to hold the FOMC's policy rate at current levels and watch for continued progress on inflation and strength in the labor market.
February 19, 2026 Speech
February 19, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Banking Outlook Conference: The Next Horizon in Banking, Atlanta, Georgia (via pre-recorded video).
On a personal note, I have enjoyed the opportunity to work with you over the years, and I am grateful for your insights and perspectives as a member of the FOMC. We have navigated extraordinary challenges together, and your contributions have been invaluable.
February 17, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Michael S. Barr. New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York.
I would like to see evidence that goods price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labor market conditions remain stable. Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time as we assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
February 16, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. At The American Bankers Association 2026 Conference for Community Bankers, Orlando, Florida.
Successfully managing the volatility in MSR valuations as interest rates change requires sophisticated hedging capabilities or an effective borrower retention strategy during refinancing waves. Servicing can also carry substantial operational risk and compliance responsibility.
February 10, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Two weeks ago, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate steady at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, a decision I voted to support. I believe we are in a good position to keep the funds rate at this level and see how things play out.
February 10, 2026 SpeechHawkish
The market proxies for the real neutral rate from Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and swaps suggest expectations for neutral real interest rates at the upper end of the model-based estimates and not far from the current policy rate. [2] All of this suggests to me that our current stance of policy may be very close to neutral and providing little restraint on economic activity and inflation.
February 6, 2026 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C..
Monetary Policy After assessing the current state of the economy, and reflecting my cautious optimism, I supported the FOMC's decision last week to maintain the federal funds rate at the current level. Over the last year and a half, the Committee lowered the target range for the policy rate by 175 basis points.
February 4, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Lisa D. Cook. Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.
Monetary Policy When considering the proper stance of monetary policy, I see risks to both parts of our dual mandate. Inflation remains persistently above our 2 percent target, and there is considerable uncertainty about when the tariff effects will recede.
January 30, 2026 StatementDovish
With total inflation excluding tariff effects close to our target at just slightly above 2 percent and a weak labor market, the policy rate should be closer to neutral, which the median FOMC participant estimates is 3 percent, and not where we are—50 to 75 basis points above 3 percent.
January 30, 2026 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. SW Graduate School of Banking at SMU Cox: 161st Assembly for Bank Directors, Oahu, Hawaii.
The Path Forward On the outlook for monetary policy, with inflation close to 2 percent, after excluding one-off tariff effects, and with unemployment near estimates of its natural rate but at risk of deteriorating, I continue to see policy as moderately restrictive. Downside risks to the labor market have not diminished, and we should not overemphasize the latest reading on the unemployment rate.
January 29, 2026 Speech
January 16, 2026 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. At Outlook 26: The New England Economic Forum, Foxborough, Massachusetts.
With inflation pressures easing—after excluding one-off tariff effects—and with the risk that labor market conditions could weaken further, I see policy as moderately restrictive. The labor market can appear to be stable right up until it doesn't.
January 16, 2026 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. American Institute for Economic Research, Shadow Open Market Committee, and Florida Atlantic University Conference, Boca Raton, Florida.
While I do not want to prejudge the decision that will take place there, in my view, the current policy stance leaves us well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
January 14, 2026 SpeechHawkish
January 12, 2026 SpeechDovish
By reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, the FOMC has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy closer to neutral. Monetary policy is now well positioned to support the stabilization of the labor market and the return of inflation to the FOMC's longer-run goal of 2 percent.
January 11, 2026 Statement
In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats.
January 7, 2026 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. California Bankers Association Bank Presidents Seminar, Laguna Beach, California (virtual).
The application process may also include standards that make little sense when applied to community banks, like using restrictive screens for evaluating the competitive effects of mergers in rural and underserved communities.
January 4, 2026 Speech
December 15, 2025 SpeechDovish
The accompanying FOMC statement said that "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." With these actions, monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026.
December 12, 2025 Speech
No published text.
December 10, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
In light of the continued tightening in money market interest rates relative to our administered rates, and other indicators of reserve market conditions, the Committee judged that reserve balances have declined to ample levels. Accordingly, at today's meeting, the Committee decided to initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities—mainly Treasury bills—for the sole purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time.
December 2, 2025 Testimony
Michelle W. Bowman. Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives.
As you know, the Federal Reserve is currently in the pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting blackout period during which FOMC members are not permitted to discuss monetary policy. Therefore, unfortunately, I will not be able to discuss monetary policy during today's hearing.
December 1, 2025 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. George P. Shultz Memorial Lecture Series: Shultz and Economic Policy, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Just to be clear, I will not address current economic conditions or monetary policy.
November 21, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. 2025 National College Fed Challenge Finals, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C..
We will apply our understanding of how monetary policy influences the economy to render our best judgment of the policy stance that will most effectively further the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, as set out by Congress, to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Often the answer to the policy questions in front of us at this table is not clear.
November 21, 2025 Speech
And since this is a Federal Reserve conference, I'll briefly outline some implications of these issues for the conduct of monetary policy, over the medium term.
November 21, 2025 SpeechDovish
I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions. Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.
November 21, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference, Cleveland, Ohio.
First, I will build on remarks I gave earlier this month and discuss how I see AI affecting the economy through the lens of the dual mandate given to the Federal Reserve by Congress to pursue maximum employment and price stability. Next, I will discuss AI in the context of financial stability because a stable and resilient financial system is, of course, critical to achieve that dual mandate.
November 20, 2025 Speech
No published text.
November 20, 2025 SpeechDovish
Lisa D. Cook. At Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, Washington, D.C..
I consider any potential financial system vulnerability through the lens of how it might constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to attain its dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. Currently, my impression is that there is an increased likelihood of outsized asset price declines.
November 18, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Alan Meltzer Speaker Series, Kogod School of Business, American University, Washington, D.C..
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Michigan's unemployment rate was 14.9 percent in 2009, meaning one in seven workers were out of jobs. Nationwide, the consequences were immense: nearly 9 million jobs lost, 8 million homes foreclosed upon, and a $17 trillion loss in household wealth.
November 17, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner, London, United Kingdom.
With underlying inflation close to the FOMC's target and evidence of a weak labor market, I support cutting the Committee's policy rate by another 25 basis points at our December meeting. For reasons I have explained, I am not worried about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly.
November 17, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri.
Monetary Policy Given that outlook, I supported last month's decision to reduce our policy rate by 1/4 percentage point. That step was appropriate because I see the balance of risks as having shifted in recent months as downside risks to employment have increased.
November 12, 2025 SpeechDovish
Looking ahead, Collins has "a relatively high bar for additional easing in the near term," as "providing additional monetary support to economic activity runs the risk of slowing – or possibly even stalling – the return of inflation to target." She says, "absent evidence of a notable labor-market deterioration, I would be hesitant to ease policy further … it seems prudent to ensure that inflation is durably on a trajectory back to 2 percent before making any further adjustments to our policy stance." 5.
November 12, 2025 Speech
The FOMC's discussion of monetary policy implementation frameworks is summarized in the minutes of the November 2018 , December 2018 , and January 2019 FOMC meetings.
November 11, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. Singapore Fintech Festival, Singapore.
As I have discussed in previous remarks, if these changes are significant, they can also affect the conduct of monetary policy. Of course, it may be the case instead that investment exceeds short-term demand, in which case there may be losses and adjustments to the AI sector.
November 7, 2025 Speech
The FOMC's discussion of monetary policy implementation frameworks is summarized in the minutes of the November 2018 , December 2018 , and January 2019 FOMC meetings.
November 7, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. At Euro20+, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt, Germany.
Labor Market and Prices When I think about this technology, I consider how it will affect both sides of the Fed's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. As such, it is something that economists and policymakers must monitor.
November 3, 2025 SpeechDovish
Lisa D. Cook. At The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C..
I see the current policy rate as remaining modestly restrictive, which is appropriate given that inflation remains somewhat above our 2 percent target.
October 30, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri.
These thresholds should also be indexed to account for economic growth and inflation.
October 29, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
At today's meeting, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent. Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation.
October 23, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. 2025 Fall New Markets Tax Credit Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana.
October 22, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. Crossing the Credit Barrier: Advancing Access and Creating Opportunities Conference, St. Louis, Missouri (via pre-recorded video).
October 22, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Opportunity Finance Network Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video).
October 21, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. Payments Innovation Conference, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C..
To control the size of the accounts and associated impacts on the Fed's balance sheet, the Reserve Banks would not pay interest on balances in a payment account, and balance caps may be imposed. These accounts would not have daylight overdraft privileges—if the balance hits zero, payments will be rejected.
October 16, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference, Boston, Massachusetts (via pre-recorded video).
October 16, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. At 2025 D.C. Fintech Week, Washington, D.C..
Moreover, banks have ready access to the discount window, where they can readily monetize assets on their balance sheets at a pre-specified interest rate under a range of market conditions, including the most dire. I don't want to say this system is perfect—it definitely is not—but it is far more robust than what we have developed so far for stablecoins.
October 16, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York.
On the other hand, if the labor market continues to soften or even weaken and inflation remains in check, then I believe the FOMC should proceed to reduce the policy rate toward a neutral level, which I judge is about 100 to 125 basis points lower than it is today.
October 15, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. At DC Fintech Week, Arlington, Virginia.
Yet the unemployment rate in September 1950 was 4.4 percent, and it is 4.3 percent as of August 2025. This is why economists are typically techno-optimists—history has repeatedly shown that adopting new technologies leads to economic growth and greater employment, not less.
October 14, 2025 SpeechDovish
Jerome H. Powell. 67th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
In December 2020, as the economic outlook remained highly uncertain, the FOMC said that we expected to maintain that pace of purchases "until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals." That guidance provided assurance that the Fed would not prematurely withdraw support while the economic recovery remained fragile amid unprecedented conditions.
October 14, 2025 SpeechDovish
I see continued growth in activity, little further rise in the unemployment rate, and inflation remaining elevated this year and into early 2026 as tariffs are passed through more fully, before resuming its decline. But
October 10, 2025 Speech
No published text.
October 9, 2025 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. Community Bank Conference, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video).
October 9, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Golden Valley, Minnesota.
In balancing and managing these risks to the FOMC's goals, I supported the Committee's decision on September 17 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Monetary policy was and remains modestly restrictive, so it seemed to me appropriate to move the rate a bit closer toward neutral, pending more data and further developments on the economy, the forecast, and the balance of risks.
October 9, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Community Bank Conference, hosted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C..
October 9, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Community Bank Conference, hosted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C..
They fail to account for economic growth and inflation over time, resulting in firms with stable growth, consistent business models, and no change in risk profile crossing asset thresholds. These firms become subject to increasingly complex and burdensome regulatory requirements and supervisory expectations.
October 8, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Center for Indian Country Development Tenth Anniversary and Data Summit, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
As members of the Federal Open Market Committee, my colleagues and I decide on the appropriate setting for monetary policy. In this role, it's vital that we understand how a variety of individuals, institutions, and communities experience the economy.
October 8, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Missouri.
October 7, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Missouri (via pre-recorded video).
October 3, 2025 Speech
Williams, 2013. " Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations ," in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking , ed. by Michael D. Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 255-97.
October 3, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. Drexel Economic Forum, Drexel University LeBow College of Business, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
To balance the risk of persistent above-target inflation and the risk of a deteriorating labor market, I supported a 25 basis point cut in our target range at the last FOMC meeting. This change moved our policy rate closer to a more neutral stance while maintaining a balanced approach to promoting our dual-mandate objectives.
September 30, 2025 Speech
But I continue to see a modestly restrictive policy stance as appropriate, as monetary policymakers work to restore price stability while limiting the risks of further labor market weakening.
September 30, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. At "Monetary Policy in the Shadow of Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts," the fourth International Monetary Policy Conference hosted by the Bank of Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
To balance the risk of persistent above-target inflation and the risk of a deteriorating labor market, I supported a 25 basis point cut in our target range at the last FOMC meeting. This change moved our policy rate closer to a more neutral stance while maintaining a balanced approach to promoting our dual-mandate objectives.
September 30, 2025 Speech
No published text.
September 29, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At Sibos 2025, Frankfurt, Germany.
September 26, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. Forecasters Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.
Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead Throughout my tenure at the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. economy has experienced many challenging times, including below-target inflation and low unemployment; the effects of the COVID-19 experience, with high unemployment, strong demand enabled by fiscal support, supply chain disruptions, and high inflation; several bank failures; extraordinary immigration; and last year's recalibration of our monetary policy stance.
September 25, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C..
Some parts of the scenario design framework are purposely countercyclical under normal conditions—for instance, the minimum peak unemployment rate is set at 10 percent. The countercyclicality of stress test scenarios is an attempt to lean against pro-cyclical effects that can make borrowers appear overly resilient in good times, something which could cause the model to significantly understate the magnitude of borrower defaults when the economy turns.
September 25, 2025 Speech
No published text.
September 23, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. 2025 Kentucky Bankers Association Annual Convention, Asheville, North Carolina.
In my view, the Committee should have begun lowering the policy rate at the July meeting, so, of course, I supported reducing the policy rate at this meeting.
September 23, 2025 SpeechDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.
This policy stance, which I see as still modestly restrictive, leaves us well positioned to respond to potential economic developments.
September 17, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
At today's meeting, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point to 4 to 4¼ percent and to continue reducing the size of our balance sheet. Changes to government policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain.
September 4, 2025 Speech
No published text.
September 4, 2025 SpeechDovish
Looking ahead, if progress on our dual mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time. This expectation reflects a delicate balancing of risks to our mandate goals.
August 28, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.
While I believe we should have cut in July, I am still hopeful that easing monetary policy at our next meeting can keep the labor market from deteriorating while returning inflation to the FOMC's goal of 2 percent. So, let's get on with it.
August 25, 2025 Speech
In addition, r-star has another important implication for monetary policy: A low r-star implies the economy can encounter more frequent and longer periods when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, potentially impeding the achievement of a central bank's inflation goals and other macroeconomic objectives.
August 22, 2025 SpeechDovish
Jerome H. Powell. At "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
With inflation above target, our policy rate is restrictive—modestly so, in my view. We cannot say for certain where rates will settle out over the longer run, but their neutral level may now be higher than during the 2010s, reflecting changes in productivity, demographics, fiscal policy, and other factors that affect the balance between saving and investment (figure 6) .
August 20, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.
That includes providing a means to access and hold U.S. dollars, particularly in countries with high inflation or without easy or affordable access to dollar cash or banking services. In fact, I believe that stablecoins have the potential to maintain and extend the role of the dollar internationally.
August 19, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.
Having clear and transparent rules is not effective if these rules are unnecessarily burdensome and restrictive. So, my second principle is that rules must be well-calibrated and tailored to address risks.
August 13, 2025 Speech
No published text.
August 9, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. Kansas Bankers Association 2025 CEO & Senior Management Summit, Colorado Springs, Colorado.
As I recognize that economic conditions are shifting, I believe that beginning to move our policy rate at a gradual pace toward its neutral level will help maintain the labor market near full employment and ensure smooth progress toward achieving our dual mandate. I see the risk that a delay in taking action could result in a deterioration in labor market conditions and a further slowing in economic growth.
August 1, 2025 StatementDovish
I remain committed to working together with my colleagues to ensure that monetary policy is appropriately positioned to achieve our dual goals of maximum employment and price stability.
August 1, 2025 StatementDovish
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is 4.1 percent, near the Committee's longer-run estimate, and total inflation is close to our target at just slightly above 2 percent if we put aside tariff effects that I believe will be temporary. Taken together, the data imply the policy rate should be around neutral, which the median FOMC participant estimates is 3 percent, and not where we are—1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above 3 percent.
July 30, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent and to continue reducing the size of our balance sheet. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
July 22, 2025 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C..
July 17, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, New York.
And looking to later this year, if, as I expect, underlying inflation remains in check—with headline inflation data reporting modest, temporary increases from tariffs that are not unanchoring inflation expectations—and the economy continues to grow slowly, I would support further 25 basis point cuts to move monetary policy toward neutral.
July 17, 2025 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. National Bureau of Economic Research, Summer Institute 2025: Digital Economics and Artificial Intelligence, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
As with other technological innovations, AI is poised to reshape our labor market, which in turn could affect our notion of maximum employment or our estimate of the natural rate of unemployment. I see it as likely that AI will allow workers to be more productive while also changing the tasks associated with any given job.
July 16, 2025 Speech
The combination of continued uncertainty, a solid labor market, and inflation still above our 2 percent goal led the FOMC to decide to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent at its most recent meeting last month.
July 16, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C..
At the same time, both S&Ls and banks were increasingly under pressure due to both high inflation and high interest rates, which disrupted their funding models. Competition for customer funds increased dramatically, especially because of the rise of money market mutual funds, which had grown rapidly.
July 15, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. At "Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future," the second annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. (via prerecorded video).
July 15, 2025 SpeechDovish
Thus, in my view, an "actively patient" approach to monetary policy remains appropriate at this time.
July 15, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. At "Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future," the second annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C..
July 10, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas, Texas.
I think of ample reserves as the threshold below which banks would need to scramble to find safe, liquid funding, something that would drive up the federal funds rate and money market interest rates across the economy. We have some experience with testing the level of ample reserves during an episode of stress in the financial system that occurred in 2019.
June 30, 2025 Speech
No published text.
June 26, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Policy Summit 2025: Building Strong and Sustainable Communities, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio.
Looking forward, however, I expect tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation. Higher short-term inflation expectations, supply chain adjustments, and second-round effects may cause some inflation persistence.
June 25, 2025 SpeechDovish
Focusing on the Fed's congressionally mandated goals of price stability and maximum employment, I see monetary policy as currently well positioned, and I supported last week's FOMC decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent.
June 24, 2025 Speech
I am particularly focused on those that affect the achievement of the FOMC's dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability, which is defined as 2 percent inflation over the longer run.
June 24, 2025 TestimonyDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives.
With the labor market at or near maximum employment and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent since the beginning of the year. We have also continued to reduce our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities and, beginning in April, further slowed the pace of this decline to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances.
June 24, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. At a Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Omaha, Nebraska.
Looking forward, however, I expect inflation to rise due to tariffs. Higher short-term inflation expectations, supply chain adjustments, and second-round effects may cause some inflation persistence.
June 24, 2025 SpeechHawkish
Most importantly for monetary policy, the housing market is very sensitive to interest rate changes, making it an important policy transmission channel.4 When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, housing typically responds first – and tends to spread the effects of monetary policy throughout the economy.
June 23, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At "Assessing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic" 2025 IJCB Research Conference, hosted by the Czech National Bank and the International Journal of Central Banking, Prague, Czech Republic.
Turning to this year's conference, we chose the theme based on events that have been very much on the minds of central bankers: "Assessing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic." The past several years have seen significant monetary policy actions across the globe in response to COVID‐19–induced recessions, inflation higher than in several decades, unprecedented supply chain disruptions, and, in some countries, very tight labor markets.
June 23, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. At "Assessing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic," a research conference sponsored by the International Journal of Central Banking and the Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic.
Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market. In the meantime, I will continue to carefully monitor economic conditions as the Administration's policies, the economy, and financial markets continue to evolve.
June 23, 2025 Speech
No published text.
June 18, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent and to continue reducing the size of our balance sheet. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
June 6, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Georgetown University McDonough School of Business Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, Washington, D.C..
A random sample of examination reports demonstrates that supervisory focus has shifted away from core financial risks (credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk, for example), to process-related concerns. While process is important for effective management, there is a risk that overemphasis on process and supervisory box-checking can be a distraction from the core purpose of supervision, which is to probe financial condition and financial risk.
June 4, 2025 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. At a Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia.
The Federal Reserve has been given a dual mandate of maximum employment and stables prices. The purpose of today's Fed Listens event is to hear from all of you about how the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy affects your families, your businesses, and your communities.
June 3, 2025 SpeechHawkish
Lisa D. Cook. Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York.
As I consider the appropriate path of monetary policy, I will carefully consider how to balance our dual mandate, and I will take into account the fact that price stability is essential for achieving long periods of strong labor market conditions.
June 3, 2025 Speech
No published text.
June 2, 2025 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. Division of International Finance 75th Anniversary Conference, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C..
For instance, the division has devised new methods to measure and assess the effect of various types of uncertainty on economic activity, including new indexes that were built to track geopolitical risk, inflation, trade policy, and economic uncertainty. As we continue to navigate the current period of heightened uncertainty, this work is critical to understanding the quantitative implications of uncertainty shocks.
June 2, 2025 Speech
No published text.
June 1, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. At "Structural Shifts and Monetary Policy," 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference, Bank of Korea, Seoul, South Korea.
Assuming that the effective tariff rate settles close to my lower tariff scenario, that underlying inflation continues to make progress to our 2 percent goal, and that the labor market remains solid, I would be supporting "good news" rate cuts later this year.
May 29, 2025 Speech
No published text.
May 25, 2025 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. At Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey.
May 23, 2025 SpeechDovish
Lisa D. Cook. Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts & Science, New York University's Stern School of Business & University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, New York, New York.
The IS-LM, or Investment-Saving Liquidity Preference-Money Supply framework, which describes how the goods market and the money market interact to determine aggregate output and interest rates in the economy, emerged as the central analytical tool for understanding short-run output and interest rate dynamics.
May 22, 2025 Speech
I see this exercise as being in the spirit of William Poole's seminal analysis of the optimal instrument for monetary policy. My goal is to provide a useful background for the rich discussion ahead of us at this conference and elsewhere.
May 20, 2025 Speech
And it informs the Fed's approach to monetary policy and how we achieve our dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment.
May 19, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. At "Financial Intermediation in Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" 2025 Financial Markets Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Fernandina Beach, Florida.
Providing liquidity at this rate supports the implementation of monetary policy because institutions can turn to the Fed if conditions tighten in money markets that might otherwise push overnight money market rates above levels that would be consistent with the Fed's target range. As I noted earlier, primary credit also helps deal with idiosyncratic funding challenges that banks might be experiencing.
May 18, 2025 Speech
The growing role of nonbank financial institutions, or NBFIs, in U.S. financial markets is a transformational trend with implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
May 15, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. 2025 Northeast / Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, New York (via pre-recorded video).
In my view, the economy is on solid footing, with solid growth, low and stable unemployment, and inflation continuing to come down towards our 2 percent target. But the outlook has been clouded by trade policies that have led to an increase in uncertainty, contributing to declines in measures of consumer and business sentiment.
May 15, 2025 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C..
This change reflected our experience with long expansions that featured historically low unemployment amid low and stable inflation, suggesting that a policy approach that carefully probed for the maximum level of employment could bring about the benefits of a strong labor market without risking price stability. In the years just prior to the pandemic, for example, unemployment was at multidecade lows while inflation ran below 2 percent.
May 14, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. Award Ceremony for the Winners of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Bank of Al-Maghrib, Rabat, Morocco.
He drew heavily on his and others' research on the 1930s, and related work on Japan's crisis and slow growth in the 1990s and 2000s, to help fashion new monetary policy tools to combat the downturn, including quantitative easing and extended forward guidance.
May 14, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, New York.
Monetary Policy Last week I supported the FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at current levels as the best policy to achieve our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. As you can see in figure 8 , the FOMC acted last year to reduce the policy rate by a full percentage point.
May 9, 2025 SpeechDovish
C., 2013. " Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations ," in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking , eds. Michael D.
May 9, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. "John Taylor and Taylor Rules in Policy" Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, The Hoover Institution, Stanford, California.
However, the central bank could promise an inflation rate that was between the low-inflation equilibrium and the high-inflation equilibrium. If private individuals expected this intermediate inflation rate, then the gains from reneging would be reduced just enough to dissuade the central bank from breaking its promise.
May 9, 2025 SpeechDovish
Lisa D. Cook. At "Finishing the Job and New Challenges," a monetary policy conference hosted by the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in recent years, and this has influenced my view of the appropriate stance of monetary policy. I will also explore two ongoing developments that are likely to influence productivity growth moving forward: changes to trade policy and the wider adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).
May 9, 2025 Speech
No published text.
May 9, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michael S. Barr. Reykjavík Economic Conference 2025, Central Bank of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland.
Another related consideration relevant for monetary policy is how economic changes due to AI will affect the neutral interest rate, or r*, which is the level of the real interest rate consistent with the economy being at its potential and inflation being at our 2 percent objective. Economic theory suggests that a permanently higher growth rate of productivity, of the kind that might arise under either AI scenario, tends to raise r*.
May 7, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent and to continue reducing the size of the balance sheet. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation.
May 3, 2025 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. James Madison College 2025 Spring Commencement, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan.
April 23, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At a Fed Listens Event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.
I advised on monetary policy while engaging with people throughout the Eighth District, hearing their concerns about how they were faring in the economy, and how they were affected by inflation, interest rates, and the state of the job market. I learned a lot about the economies of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas (see, I haven't forgotten!).
April 23, 2025 Speech
No published text.
April 22, 2025 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. Economic Mobility Summit, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
I think that a society with relatively higher mobility may allow for more efficient transmission of monetary policy. In a dynamic economy with relatively more upward mobility, individuals may have greater incentives to be proactive in the job market.
April 17, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, New York.
April 16, 2025 SpeechDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.
As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum employment and price-stability mandates, keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans. We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.
April 15, 2025 Speech
Lisa D. Cook. Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C..
April 14, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. Certified Financial Analysts Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.
With a rapidly slowing economy, even if inflation is running well above 2 percent, I expect the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation, especially if the effects of tariffs in raising inflation are expected to be short lived.
April 11, 2025 SpeechDovish
The answer is that the current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still above our 2 percent goal. Importantly, it gives us the opportunity to assess incoming data and developments, and ultimately positions us well to adjust to changing circumstances that affect the achievement of our dual mandate goals.
April 10, 2025 Speech
No published text.
April 10, 2025 SpeechDovish
So, having short-term inflation expectations increase in that context is not surprising, but really watching whether the longer run inflation expectations remain anchored, I think is very important in terms of how I think of appropriate policy responses going forward.
April 10, 2025 Testimony
Michelle W. Bowman. Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate.
I can assure the Committee that if I am confirmed as the Vice Chair for Supervision, I will be strongly committed to these values.
April 4, 2025 SpeechDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia.
Monetary Policy Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation.
April 4, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
April 3, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. At "Financial Intermediaries, Markets, and Monetary Policy," a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, Atlanta, Georgia.
These conditions led me to favor holding the policy rate constant at what I view as a moderately restrictive level.
April 3, 2025 SpeechDovish
Lisa D. Cook. 2025 McKay Lecture, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Then, amid progress on disinflation and a rebalancing labor market, last year my FOMC colleagues and I voted to make policy somewhat less restrictive. At our past two policy meetings, we held rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
March 25, 2025 Speech
We recognize that what we do at the Federal Reserve—especially regarding monetary policy—affects banks and their customers in all sorts of ways.
March 24, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At The Aspen Institute, Washington, D.C..
For instance, instead of providing familiar metrics like an Annual Percentage Rate (APR) or an interest rate, some nonbank providers present a factor rate—a fundamentally different metric that cannot be directly compared to an APR or interest rate. The research identified a lender's website that advertised a "factor rate of 1.15" which translated to an undisclosed estimated APR of approximately 70 percent.
March 21, 2025 StatementDovish
At the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I supported no change in the federal funds target range but preferred to continue the current pace of decline in securities holdings.
March 21, 2025 SpeechDovish
I'll talk about global inflationary trends, inflation expectations, and how the Federal Reserve is working to achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
March 19, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
As we say in our statement, in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance, and we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.
March 17, 2025 Statement
Michelle W. Bowman. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
March 7, 2025 SpeechHawkish
Michelle W. Bowman. 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York.
Although the FOMC has been focused on lowering inflation in the past few years, as we continue to make progress on approaching our 2 percent target, I expect that the labor market and economic activity will become a larger factor in the FOMC's policy discussions. Accordingly, the stylized results on real activity effects in the paper will prove especially useful going forward.
March 7, 2025 Speech
Jerome H. Powell. University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York.
Conclusion Before I conclude, I will note that at our last FOMC meeting, we began our second five-year review of our monetary policy framework. We will consider changes to our consensus statement (Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy) and to our communications as part of this review.
March 7, 2025 SpeechDovish
Such stability of inflation expectations has a potentially important role in understanding why disinflation has not been accompanied by a slowdown in real activity." I couldn't agree more, and this passage led me to look more closely at inflation expectations and how monetary policy shocks affected these expectations.
February 28, 2025 SpeechHawkish
In the late '90s, as personal computers, IT, and the internet were all on the rise—and despite rapid productivity growth and concerns that overheating could cause inflation—the Fed decided not to raise rates for an extended period. Lo and behold, there was not much inflation.
February 27, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At Alliance for Innovative Regulation, Washington, D.C..
February 27, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. At The Robbins Banking Institute Lecture Series, Hays, Kansas.
And while many factors influence the health of the community bank model—including the interest rate environment, economic conditions, and alternative sources of competition for credit—we should consider whether there are actions regulators can take to support and ensure the future of community banks.
February 25, 2025 SpeechHawkish
Michael S. Barr. At Yale School of Management, Program on Financial Stability, New Haven, Connecticut.
I have spoken previously about how monetary policy and financial stability are inextricably linked and how the tools we use to conduct monetary policy and support financial stability work together.
February 21, 2025 SpeechHawkish
Philip N. Jefferson. Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Policymakers know that their communications are likely to affect the course of short-term interest rates, other asset prices, and the associated economic outlook, resulting in an easing or tightening of financial conditions. Therefore, policymakers have always paid close attention to what they say, well before market participants started applying artificial intelligence tools to central bank communications.
February 20, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. At Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C..
In this role, I'll continue to participate in monetary policy deliberations and vote on matters before the Board, including those related to supervision and regulation.
February 20, 2025 Speech
No published text.
February 19, 2025 Speech
Philip N. Jefferson. Martin H. Crego Lecture in Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York.
While a cumulative cut in the policy rate by 100 basis points last year has brought the stance of monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, monetary policy continues to be restrictive. I believe that, with a strong economy and a solid labor market, we can take our time to assess the incoming data to make any further adjustments to our policy rate.
February 18, 2025 Speech
Michael S. Barr. Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York.
February 17, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. University of New South Wales Macroeconomic Workshop, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Before I get to my outlook for monetary policy, I want to address a topic of some debate recently, which is the divergence between long-term interest rates and the FOMC's policy rate since we started cutting rates in September. While the FOMC has reduced the policy rate 100 basis points since then, yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury security have increased by a noticeable amount.
February 17, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. At The American Bankers Association 2025 Conference for Community Bankers, Phoenix, Arizona.
Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Toward the end of last year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began the process of moving the target range for the federal funds rate to a more neutral setting to reflect the progress made since 2023 on lowering inflation and cooling the labor market.
February 12, 2025 Speech
Christopher J. Waller. At A Very Stable Conference, San Francisco, California.
The smaller the interest rate spread, the more important scale becomes. For the fee-based models, free entry into this space will drive down fees as it does in any other market, which will reduce the revenue from issuing a stablecoin.
February 11, 2025 TestimonyDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C..
The focus of this review is on the FOMC's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates the Committee's approach to monetary policy, and on the Committee's policy communications tools. The Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation goal will be retained and will not be a focus of the review.
February 11, 2025 SpeechDovish
With the labor market in balance and inflation moving toward our price stability goal, the FOMC decided at its most recent meeting in January to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In terms of the Fed's balance sheet, the process of gradually reducing our securities holdings is proceeding smoothly.
February 11, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. 2025 Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference, Des Moines, Iowa (virtual).
February 5, 2025 SpeechHawkish
It says the tariff inflation is not a sign of persistent overheating and therefore the central bank should ignore it when setting monetary policy.
February 5, 2025 SpeechHawkish
Philip N. Jefferson. At Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania.
In December 2019, the median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participant expected the aggregate unemployment rate to remain below 4 percent through the end of 2022 while inflation was expected to move back up to the Committee's 2 percent objective. Had this long, non-inflationary expansion continued as the Committee forecast, gaps in employment and earnings across groups may have continued to narrow as well.
February 5, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. Kansas Bankers Association Government Relations Conference, Topeka, Kansas.
However, in periods of banks' balance sheet expansion—as during COVID-19 when we saw significant deposit inflows—leverage ratios can become the binding constraint on banks and their affiliates, increasing the amount of required capital based on increased balance sheet size regardless of risk. When constrained in this way, bank-affiliated primary dealers may pull back on market intermediation activities.
February 4, 2025 SpeechDovish
Philip N. Jefferson. Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania.
Given current economic conditions—specifically, inflation that remains modestly above our target and a labor market that is solid—and my projections of future economic conditions, I voted last week to maintain our current policy stance. As long as the economy and labor market remain strong, I see it as appropriate for the Committee to be cautious in making further adjustments.
January 31, 2025 SpeechDovish
Michelle W. Bowman. At The New England CEO Summit, Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
I supported this action because, after recalibrating the level of the policy rate towards the end of last year to reflect the progress made since 2023 on lowering inflation and cooling the labor market, I think that policy is now in a good place to position the Committee to pay closer attention to the inflation data as it evolves.
January 29, 2025 Press conferenceDovish
Jerome H. Powell. Federal Reserve Board, Washington.
I would note that the Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation goal will, will be retained and will not be a focus of the review. The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy: maximum employment and stable prices.
January 15, 2025 SpeechDovish
I'll also talk about how monetary policy is working to achieve the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. And finally, I'll speak about what's going on specifically in this region before providing my economic outlook.
January 15, 2025 Speech
No published text.
January 14, 2025 Speech
Before I go further, let me give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System.
January 9, 2025 Speech
Michelle W. Bowman. California Bankers Association 2025 Bank Presidents Seminar, Laguna Beach, California.
Update on the Most Recent FOMC Meetings At the September meeting last year, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate, for the first time since we began tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
January 9, 2025 SpeechDovish
And with inflation heading back to target, a key goal for policy became preserving those healthy labor market conditions while continuing to bring inflation down and I continue to monitor a range of indicators, including labor market indicators, closely. But my concerns about emerging labor market fragilities have decreased more recently, as the unemployment rate stabilized after rising notably in the first half of 2024.
January 8, 2025 SpeechDovish
Christopher J. Waller. At Lectures of the Governor, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, France.
I believe policy is still restrictive in most cases, which should support the goals of policymakers to have inflation at their targets going forward.
January 6, 2025 SpeechDovish
Lisa D. Cook. Seventh Conference on Law and Macroeconomics, University of Michigan Law School, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Thus, in September, I voted along with my FOMC colleagues to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate half a point after maintaining it at a peak of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent for more than a year, and we subsequently approved two more quarter-point cuts in November and December.
October 13, 2026 SpeechHawkish
With elevated risks of persistently high inflation, but more limited downside risks to the real economy and labor market, I believe it is appropriate for the Federal Open Market Committee (the FOMC) to focus on the inflation side of the Fed's dual mandate. Therefore, I supported last month's FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
October 9, 2026 Speech
One important contribution was to explore (with Simon Gilchrist) the links between asset prices and monetary policy, considering questions of great relevance for policymakers – such as whether and how monetary policy should react to shocks that impact financial markets.
September 30, 2026 Speech
No published text.
September 29, 2026 Speech
September 22, 2026 SpeechDovish
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress: price stability and maximum employment. The FOMC weighs each as we make our decisions.
September 21, 2026 Speech
If the forecast calls for large, persistent, recurring shocks, the central bank still has to restore price stability under its legal mandate—and the only way to bring inflation down is to raise rates and narrow the gap between supply and demand, even if it's not in the exact same sectors where the cost shocks are occurring.
August 25, 2026 Speech
But with inflation still too high, I remain particularly concerned about the price stability portion of the dual mandate.
August 13, 2026 SpeechDovish
And the current level of interest rates, many think, is still restrictive enough to bring inflation down.
July 14, 2026 Speech
No published text.
June 25, 2026 Speech
No published text.
May 27, 2026 Speech
Some view the lesson of the 1990s in the United States to be that faster productivity growth can mean lower rates because it lowers inflation. At the time, then-U.S.
May 21, 2026 SpeechDovish
This approach of looking through supply shocks has worked well for a generation thanks to what economists call "anchored long-term inflation expectations." Where businesses and consumers expect inflation to be in the future helps shape actual inflation. It informs how individuals negotiate wages and how businesses set prices.
May 13, 2026 SpeechDovish
Given this outlook and the balance of risks, I believe it will likely be important to maintain the current slightly restrictive monetary policy stance for some time. More than five years of above- target inflation has reduced my patience for "looking through" another supply shock.
May 12, 2026 Speech
No published text.
May 8, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Alan Greenspan argued that because there were strong corporate profits, declining unemployment, rising wages, and falling inflation, it must mean faster productivity growth, and on that basis, he argued against raising rates.
May 6, 2026 Speech
April 14, 2026 Speech
No published text.
April 8, 2026 Speech
The rest of our work focuses on monetary policy. And here, a diversity of views supports better outcomes.
April 7, 2026 Speech
No published text.
March 31, 2026 Speech
No published text.
March 27, 2026 SpeechDovish
I'll be watching carefully the impact of this latest shock on both inflation and inflation expectations.
March 6, 2026 SpeechDovish
This, combined with recent evidence suggesting a relatively stable labor market, in my view argues for maintaining policy rates at their current, mildly restrictive levels for some time. I do not see an urgency for additional policy adjustments, and I will be looking for clear evidence that inflation is moving durably toward the 2 percent target – something that might occur only over the second half of the year.
March 5, 2026 Speech
You're out of any business except following the dual mandate, which says that what drives monetary policy by law is stabilizing prices and maximizing employment. And you pledge to deal with whatever conditions come down the pike.
February 24, 2026 Speech
Understanding these dynamics helps inform how we think about the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. And it relates directly to the Boston Fed's overarching mission – a vibrant economy that works for everyone.
February 24, 2026 SpeechDovish
Taking stock of 2025 overall, I think growth was solid and the labor market mostly held steady despite low headline job numbers; however, we stopped making progress on inflation. Some observers have interpreted the same data to mean the economy is teetering and may fall apart without more rapid action by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
February 19, 2026 Speech
No published text.
February 17, 2026 SpeechHawkish
Standard macro models and monetary policy thinking suggested interest rates should rise to ward off overheating in the labor market and a more significant run-up in inflation.
February 3, 2026 SpeechDovish
I think of these cuts as having taken out some insurance to support the labor market as we work to complete the last mile to bring inflation back to target. So far, so good.
January 16, 2026 Speech
While I won't be addressing the economy or monetary policy in these brief comments, I'll offer my standard disclaimer – that my remarks reflect my own views, not necessarily those of my colleagues at the other Reserve Banks or the Board of Governors.
January 6, 2026 SpeechDovish
As the labor market has softened in the past year, the FOMC cut rates further in the fall and to a level now within the range of its estimates of neutral. Think of it as taking out a bit of insurance.
November 21, 2025 SpeechDovish
And with two rate cuts now in place, I'd find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool more rapidly.
November 20, 2025 SpeechDovish
Lowering interest rates to support the labor market risks prolonging this period of elevated inflation, and it could also encourage risk-taking in financial markets. Financial conditions are quite accommodative today, reflecting recent gains in equity prices and easy credit conditions.
November 18, 2025 SpeechDovish
I will note it is a challenge to calibrate how much impact slower job growth will have on the unemployment rate, because we have been witnessing a rapid drop in the growth of labor supply. My generation is aging out of the workforce, and net immigration is declining.
November 17, 2025 Speech
November 13, 2025 SpeechDovish
Plosser, Charles I. 2012. " Macro Models and Monetary Policy Analysis ." Speech at the Bundesbank–Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Spring 2012 Research Conference, Eltville, Germany, May 25.
November 13, 2025 Speech
So, I am feeling cautiously optimistic on inflation, and I see a decent chance that we will end the year with inflation that is close to 2 percent on a run-rate basis; that is, 12-month inflation may still be a little elevated, but three-month inflation will be 2 percent by the end of the year. Yesterday's CPI inflation release for December doesn't change my assessment.
November 6, 2025 Speech
After last week's meeting, I see monetary policy as barely restrictive, if at all, and it's not obvious to me that monetary policy should do more at this time. But the future is inherently uncertain, and I'm watching developments closely.
October 31, 2025 SpeechDovish
And I'd find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool more rapidly.
October 30, 2025 Speech
October 8, 2025 SpeechHawkish
September 30, 2025 SpeechDovish
I supported the FOMC's rate cut earlier this month because it helped better balance the risk of slowing the labor market too much against the ongoing imperative to bring inflation back to the 2 percent target. However, I am also committed to finishing the job of sustainably restoring price stability.
September 26, 2025 SpeechDovish
At our last meeting, we cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to just over 4 percent, moving toward a more neutral policy stance. This should help support the labor market while maintaining pressure on inflation, in the interest of keeping the economy on path to that more stable horizon.
September 25, 2025 SpeechDovish
As everyone here surely knows, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy by changing the target range for the federal funds rate. For almost as long as the FOMC has issued post-meeting FOMC statements, they have reported what the committee decided about the fed funds target.
September 24, 2025 SpeechHawkish
As a monetary policymaker, I'm focused on the dual mandate that Congress gave us: price stability and maximum employment.
September 19, 2025 StatementDovish
I believe the risk of a sharp increase in unemployment warrants the committee taking some action to support the labor market. In my previous submissions to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), I had indicated that two 25-basis-point rate cuts would likely be appropriate this year (Figure 7).
September 18, 2025 SpeechDovish
Given my views on tariffs and inflation, monetary policy should be focused on balancing risks to maximum employment and price stability which means moving policy towards a more neutral stance.
September 18, 2025 SpeechDovish
And, as I think about monetary policy over the longer arc, I'll be focused on how to appropriately balance the risks to both inflation and the labor market, guided by my commitment to deliver on the FOMC's price stability mandate and get inflation all the way back to 2 percent.
August 25, 2025 SpeechDovish
In my view, a key current challenge of monetary policy implementation is how to return central bank balance sheets to more normal sizes and compositions following the expansions undertaken in response to the pandemic. I'll focus my discussion on G7 central banks such as the Fed, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Canada (BoC), which have similar approaches to monetary policy implementation and operate in broadly similar financial systems.
August 12, 2025 SpeechHawkish
You'll have seen that, at our July meeting, with the labor market near most estimates of maximum employment and inflation above target, the FOMC continued to hold the fed funds rate at a modestly restrictive level. We may well see pressure on inflation, and we may also see pressure on unemployment, but the balance between the two is still unclear.
August 6, 2025 Speech
I see two dynamics affecting these mandates: the Fed's stance on interest rates and the slate of recent policy changes taken by elected officials.
July 16, 2025 Speech
As maximum employment is one side of our dual mandate, the Fed's Community Development function prioritizes gathering information about the labor market. It's important to understand any potential barriers that may get in the way of people getting and keeping jobs.
July 15, 2025 SpeechDovish
For now, I believe monetary policy is well positioned to achieve the FOMC's goals of maximum employment and price stability and to respond appropriately as the outlook changes.
July 1, 2025 Speech
At that time, he had, in addition to many other noteworthy responsibilities, the important job of closing the special door to the FOMC meeting room after Chairman Bernanke entered. I am glad to say that Chris's talents are now being used to open doors to dialogue, collaboration, and innovation that drive efficiency, resilience, and progress.
June 27, 2025 StatementDovish
While we gather more evidence on the true tariff shock affecting the economy, I believe we should put more emphasis on the actual inflation and real economic data that we are seeing without committing to an easing policy path in case the effects of tariffs are merely delayed.
June 26, 2025 Speech
As maximum employment is one side of our dual mandate, understanding those barriers and learning about possible solutions are core to our work.
June 24, 2025 SpeechDovish
In my view, the current policy stance is only modestly restrictive: the labor market has been healthy, and inflation has come down only slowly under the current setting. This feels to me like policy is already close to neutral.
June 22, 2025 SpeechDovish
The FOMC now publishes meeting statements and minutes, economic projections and projected interest rate paths, a statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy, and of course, an explicit inflation target. The Chair also holds post-meeting press conferences, and FOMC participants regularly provide their own commentary and views during inter-meeting periods.
June 3, 2025 SpeechDovish
And I believe that, to help the public understand how policymakers think about a range of possible environments, the FOMC should consider how our communications can better convey key risks and uncertainties and how monetary policy would respond to them.
May 29, 2025 Speech
For now, with the labor market holding strong, inflation trending gradually back to target, and risks to the FOMC's objectives roughly balanced, I believe monetary policy is in a good place. It could take quite some time to know whether the balance of risks is shifting in one direction or another.
May 19, 2025 Speech
In my view, rate control is not just about keeping the fed funds rate in the target range. The fed funds market is small.
May 16, 2025 Speech
May 9, 2025 Speech
So, I am feeling cautiously optimistic on inflation, and I see a decent chance that we will end the year with inflation that is close to 2 percent on a run-rate basis; that is, 12-month inflation may still be a little elevated, but three-month inflation will be 2 percent by the end of the year.
May 9, 2025 SpeechDovish
My view that monetary policy is only modestly restrictive is based on my assessment that the economy has been resilient, the labor market has been healthy, and inflation has come down only slowly under the current setting. Figuring out the neutral rate is always complicated.
April 23, 2025 SpeechDovish
Holding a large amount of duration may make less sense when monetary policy needs to turn restrictive to bring down inflation—even if the balance sheet is not the primary tool of monetary policy.
April 16, 2025 Speech
However, on our inflation objective, there is still more work to do to return the economy to price stability, which the FOMC defines as 2 percent inflation in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE inflation. Headline PCE inflation was 2-1/2 percent through February, and core PCE inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, was somewhat higher.
April 10, 2025 Speech
For now, I believe the stance of monetary policy is well positioned.
February 27, 2025 SpeechDovish
First, I believe that monetary policy has the luxury of being patient as we assess the path forward, and this will likely mean holding the federal funds rate steady for some time. We have made good progress, but 2 percent inflation is not in sight just yet.
February 25, 2025 Speech
So although I view a neutral mix of purchases relative to issuance as appropriate in the long run, it would make sense in the medium term to overweight purchases of shorter-dated securities so as to more promptly return the Fed's holdings to a neutral allocation.
February 18, 2025 SpeechDovish
February 11, 2025 SpeechDovish
As I see strong economic growth, the low unemployment rate, and still-elevated inflation, my overall view as of today is that monetary policy is only modestly restrictive. But considerable uncertainty surrounds this assessment, and we may be at or close to a neutral setting already.
February 6, 2025 SpeechDovish
So I don't usually try to judge whether the policy rate itself is restrictive or accommodative, but instead I think through how moving the policy rate will affect broader financial conditions.
January 5, 2025 SpeechDovish
Mishkin. 1997. " Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy? " Journal of Economic Perspectives 11(2), pp. 97–116.